“Julie, I’ve found it helpful to keep a list of dates of
some of the more important events in climate science. With that, I know who knew what when. Shall we share the list with our
readers?”
“Curmudge, at your age I can understand your need for the
list. By all means, let’s share
it.”
1000-1200 A.D.
Medieval Warm Period.
~1100 Vikings
settled Greenland.
~1350 Greenland
settlements died out.
1350-1900 A.D.
Little Ice Age. We’re still
recovering from the Little Ice Age.
In the 1940’s in Ohio one could ice skate outside all winter. Senior citizens still say, “Winters
aren’t like they used to be.”
1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 – IPCC issued Assessment Reports on
Global Warming.
1997 Kyoto
Protocol. Established mandatory
targets on greenhouse gas emissions for the world’s leading economies.
1998-1999 “The
Hockey Stick.” Plots of surface
temperature that were relatively flat up to 1900 followed by a sharp
increase. This remains the subject
of fierce debate.
April 2000
National Public Radio’s “What’s up
with the weather?” In-depth
interviews with experts on both sides of the debate. Text accessible at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/debate/
April 2009 U.S. E.P.A.
Officially designated carbon dioxide as a pollutant.
2009-November 2011
“Climategate.” Hacked
emails released indicating that the Hockey Stick authors used questionable
statistics and data manipulation and suppressed publication of research that
contradicted their findings. (See
Kaizen Curmudgeon posting on Peer
Review.)
April 12, 2013. Røyrvik,
Emil A. Consensus and Controversy, The Debate on Man-Made Global Warming. SINTEF A24071.
2013. The NOAA “State of the
Climate in 2008” report asserted that 15 years or more without any
statistically significant warming would indicate a discrepancy between
observation and prediction.
Sixteen years without warming have therefore now proven that the models
are wrong by their creators’ own criterion. (SINTEF
A24071, p. 54)
“So, Julie, that’s the list that brings us close to the present.”
“I sense, Old Guy, that you are in the ‘contrarian’ camp on global
warming, i.e., that you feel that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
will not cause global warming with attendant climatic disasters.”
“To be more specific, I don’t agree with those in the so-called
‘consensus’ camp that their ‘science’ has proven anthropogenic global
warming. At present, the issue is
unresolved, and Mother Nature has no obligation to comply with the beliefs or
consensus of a group of climate scientists.”
“Historically, Curmudge, this has been and continues to be a
closely-fought debate. What
factors tipped you into the contrarian camp?”
“There were several, Julie.
a) The issue became political, and the scientists had a vested interest
in their findings. (See our recent
posting
on models and vested interest.)
b) ‘Climategate’ destroyed
the credibility of the principal global warming proponents. c) For the past several years, global
temperatures have not risen as they had been forecast. d) Factors other than carbon dioxide
have been found to correlate better with global temperature.”
“I’ll bet that many of the ‘factor d)’ findings were in the Robinson,
Robinson, and Soon paper (1). I
also suspect that this review paper with 132 references might have been one of
those suppressed during Climategate.”
“It might have been, Julie.
Here are some quotations from Robinson et al. Citations to the original findings may be found in their paper.
‘Hydrocarbon use is uncorrelated with temperature. Temperature rose for a century before
significant hydrocarbon use.
Temperature rose between 1910 and 1940, while hydrocarbon use was almost
unchanged. Temperature then fell
between 1940 and 1972, while hydrocarbon use rose by 330%. Also, the 150 to 200-year slopes of the
sea level and glacial trends were unchanged by the very large increase in
hydrocarbon use after 1940.’
‘During the current period of recovery from the Little Ice Age (data from
either 1900 or 1950 to 2006), the U.S. climate has improved somewhat, with more
rainfall, fewer tornados, and no increase in hurricane activity. Sea level has trended upward for the
past 150 years at a rate of 7 inches per century.’
‘There is a close correlation between solar activity and temperature and
none between hydrocarbon use and temperature.’ ‘The observed variation in solar activity is typical of
stars close in size and age to the sun.
The current warming trends on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, Neptune’s moon
Triton, and Pluto may result, in part, from similar relations to the sun and
its activity—like those that are warming the Earth.’
‘Correlation does not prove causality, but non-correlation proves
non-causality.’ “
“Wow, Curmudge! Those are
pretty powerful findings. Please
move over and make room for me in the contrarian camp. Nevertheless, despite your curmudgeonly
prejudices, you promised an overview of the hopefully even-handed presentation
in SINTEF A24071”
“Hang in there, Julie. That
will be our next posting.”
Kaizen Curmudgeon
(1) Robinson, A.B.,
Robinson, N.E., and Soon, W. Environmental Effects of Increased
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, J. Am. Phys. Surg. 12, 79-90 (2007).
Link to posting from blog archives: A Just Culture 11/28/08
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