In the
15th century there were no computers. Instead, they had wizards. Although now we have computers, we still have wizards who
tell us what the computer output means.
Return to the15th century with Curmudge and Jaded Julie who tell us about
a wizard who might sound familiar.
The wizard, however, shall remain nameless. (This allegory was conceived purely for the author’s
amusement.)
Reprinted from Curmudgeon’s
Wastebasket Originally Posted February 17, 2010
“Today, Jaded Julie, we’re going to
do some thinking outside of the box.”
“That shouldn’t be hard, Curmudge.
You are outside of the box.”
“We’ll begin by making some
assumptions for which there has been some evidence in recent years (1). Let’s
assume that the earth’s average temperature has been rising linearly at 0.7
degrees Celsius per 100 years and that a total increase of four degrees C.
converts the earth into a jungle. At 0.7 degrees per century, that would
require 570 years. For simplicity, let’s round it off to 600 years and begin
our story in the year 1410, i.e., 600 years ago.”
“I’m with you, Curmudge. Beam me
down, Scottie.”
“Life was not easy in 1410. While
the kings lived like kings, the common people in the country eked out a living
in agriculture and those in the cities built cathedrals. Along came an
all-knowing (so he thought) wizard who convinced the Pope and all the world’s
kings, czars, and caliphs that we were faced with the future tragedy of global
warming. (He was wrong. In 1410 we were actually at the end of the Medieval
Warm Period.) Further, the wizard proposed that global warming could be averted
by stopping the growth of the burning of fossil fuels, at that time coal and
peat. The world’s leaders agreed with the wizard and decreed that his proposal
be implemented. Additionally, the
people were so grateful for the wizard’s insight that he became quite famous
and was showered with riches.”
“I think I see what’s coming,
Curmudge. The growth of a civilization parallels its energy use. If additional
coal could not be mined, the development of civilization would have been
arrested at 1410. I shudder at the thought; it would have been ‘Groundhog Day’
forever.”
”Worse than that, Julie. Without
coal for steam engines, the Industrial Revolution could not have occurred, and
our life expectancy would still be around 40 years. Even the printing press
might not have been invented. In fact, most of the inventions created after
1410 would not have happened.”
“Things like cars, airplanes,
computers, modern sanitation and health care, nuclear power, space flight, and
Krispy Kreme donuts. So Curmudge,
is there a lesson in this?”
“Sure. World leaders should be wary
of purported wizards; and if they do believe the wizard, they should not be
taken in by recommendations of global, draconian measures.”
“By the way, Curmudge, now we know
that the wizard was wrong and that he had pulled off the 15th
century’s biggest boondoggle. What
eventually happened to him?”
“I took awhile for the world leaders
to realize that they had been ‘had.’ By then the wizard had disappeared with his bag of
gold and presumably lived happily ever after.”
Kaizen Curmudgeon
(1) Plass, G.N. Carbon dioxide and
the climate. Reprint of author’s 1956 article in American Scientist 98 (1)
58-67 (January-February 2010)
Link to posting from blog archives: Resources for Learning About Patient Safety: 11/13/08
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