Risks and Fears--Examples

“Curmudge, have you used up your supply of vignettes like the one last week where I was chased by a bear?”

“No problem, Julie.  You’ll always be safe if you hike with someone who can’t run as fast as you.  But I can assure you that we are past the technical stuff and will just talk about situations where people don’t have their head on straight regarding risks and fears.”

“And as usual, you’ll start with a tale from long ago.”

“I grew up in Ohio a half-mile from a coal-fired power plant that belched a plume of smoke and fly ash 24/7.  Everyone knew that that stuff was not good for our lungs, but the plant had always been there, and we liked having electric lights.  When I visited the area a few months ago, the plant was four times its original size with much better emission controls.”

“But why, Curmudge, didn’t they put in a nuclear power plant when more capacity was needed?  There wouldn’t have been any air pollution at all.”

“If one had been considered (and it probably wasn’t), the locals would likely have opposed it.  They would have been fearful that some sort of disaster would release high-level radiation, and that low-level radiation from daily operations would produce chronic health problems like cancer.  (More on this in later postings.)  However, a better-informed person would have realized that a disaster from a Japan-type tsunami is extremely unlikely on Lake Erie.  And furthermore, radiation from the power plant at my former residence would have been insignificant compared to natural background radiation.”

“So this, Curmudge, is an example showing where a perception gap could lead to a less-healthy choice.”

“Right, Julie.  Here’s another close-to-home example.  Both Al and Mack have phones in their cars.  They use headphones so they can have both hands on the steering wheel.  Have they reduced their biggest threat?  No, because their biggest threat is mental (1).  We’ve said it before; the mind can’t concentrate on two things at the same time.  I proved that to myself by listening to language tapes as I drove to work.  I couldn’t concentrate on learning while driving safely.  Incidentally, Al and Mack accept and feel they can control the risk of driving and talking.  And Mack accepts the risk of sometimes riding a motorcycle (while wearing a helmet), but control of this risk is in the hands of nearby people driving cars.  The point is that a risk is unchanged whether one accepts it or not.”

“Wow, Curmudge!  I share your concern.  So what about the people’s perception of risk from trace chemicals in the river that you mentioned at the top of the preceding posting?  My guess is that a psychologist would not have changed people’s minds, but he would have better understood the bases of their concerns.”

“Right again, Julie.  The chemicals were presumably man-made, new and unknown to the populace, provided no benefit, were toxic at some uncertain level, and the people did not choose that they be put in the river.  Furthermore, the people didn’t trust the guy saying, ‘Not a problem.’  Ultimately, processes were changed to avoid producing the trace chemical as a by-product.  If the problem had persisted, a nongovernmental organization would likely have shown up to incite the people and increase the organization’s funding.”

“Finally, what about your statement in our preceding posting that a hospital is a risky place for patients?”

“That’s been documented in our postings and elsewhere.  The potential patient should ask around and search all available literature on hospital and physician safety records and outcomes (2).  My greatest fear is surgical site infections, which contributed to the early demise of my close friend, Stan.”

“I believe that you felt that Mrs. Curmudgeon had been fortunate in that respect.”

“She was, Julie.  Prior to her last surgery, a laparoscopic lung biopsy, I asked the surgeon if he had ordered a prophylactic antibiotic.  He said, ‘No, not for such a straightforward procedure.’  The doc was a crusty surgeon of the old school, so I didn’t press the matter further.  Later, however, I noticed the antibiotic on the hospital bill.  The lesson, of course, is that the patient should be accompanied by a friend or relative.  In our case, it was helpful to have had a little knowledge and to have known the surgeon.  In all cases, the patient should try to make her hospital stay as short as possible.”

“So what’s the bottom line on risk and fear, Curmudge?”

“Use your head.  Study, learn, ask around, but don’t be swayed by the crowd. Keep your perception gap as small as possible.  And look to the right first before crossing a street in Great Britain.”

Kaizen Curmudgeon

 

(1)  Ropeik, David  How Risky Is It, Really?  (2010, McGraw-Hill)

(2)  Suggested resources: The Wisconsin Collaborative for Healthcare Quality, www.wchq.org.  The Leapfrog Group, www.leapfroggroup.org, and www.hospitalsafetyscore.org.