Curmudge and Jaded Julie Talk About Cause and Effect

Receding glaciers, melting snow on Mt. Kilimanjaro, and reduced polar bear habitat were purported to prove that global warming was occurring.  Actually, the temperature at the summit of Mt. Kilimanjaro never rises above the melting point of ice.

Reprinted from Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket Originally Posted January 27, 2010

“Jaded Julie, I’m concerned that many people don’t understand basic science.”

“If basic science means physical chemistry and thermodynamics, I would be concerned that you are concerned. In fact, Curmudge, I would consider you to be an unrealistic zealot.”

“No, Julie. I mean really basic grade-school stuff. Let’s write a play to illustrate a very simple lesson. The time is almost 400 years ago, and the setting is the city of Florence in northern Italy. My character is called Cattivo Uomo, and you will be Spossate Infermiera.”

“Which are, of course, Nasty Man and Jaded Nurse in Italian (actually, the adjective should follow the noun, i.e., uomo cattivo).”

“The curtain has gone up, and you and I are up early watching the sun rise.”

“What a beautiful sunrise, Cattivo.”

“It happens every morning, Spossate, just like clockwork.”

“We would be in big trouble if the sun didn’t go around the earth so regularly. It must come closer in the summer when it gets so warm here. Then the glaciers in the Alps melt back. Thankfully, it gets cooler at night when the sun is around on the other side.”

“Can you think of any other explanation for our days and nights, Spossate?”

“It seems pretty obvious to me that the sun goes around the earth. Everyone sees it rise and set, and that’s what they believe.”

“I’ve heard about another explanation…that the sun stands at the center of our universe, and that the earth rotates once every 24 hours.”

“Outrageous! Who said that, Cattivo?”

“It was our neighbor, Mr. Galilei. His ideas are going to get him into a lot of trouble.”

“Our play’s over, Julie. Curtain down. Did it teach you a lesson?”

“I’m shocked that 400 years ago virtually everyone thought that the sun moved around the earth every day, but that was the easiest explanation.”

“We know now that the accepted explanation was false. So what is the lesson that our story teaches?”

“I’ve got it, Curmudge. No matter how evident the effect, it does not prove the cause.”

“By the way, Julie, in the play Cattivo Uomo, and Spossate Infermiera were up early watching the sun rise.  My daughter wondered what an old man and a young woman were doing together at that hour of the morning.”

“And I’ll bet, Curmudge, that you evaded the question.”

Kaizen Curmudgeon 

Link to posting from blog archives: The Curmudgeon Shadows Jaded Julie 7/26/2007

http://kaizencurmudgeon.blogspot.com/2007/07/curmudgeon-shadows-jaded-julie.html

Curmudgeon and Jaded Julie Read the Newspaper

Reprinted from Curmudgeon’s Wastebasket Originally Posted January 22, 2010

This alludes to the alarmist publicity given to the early speculation regarding impending global warming.

“Curmudge, I see that you are reading the editorial and opinion pages of the newspaper.”

“It takes less time, Jaded Julie. The regular news pages contain a lot of useless stuff like the latest indiscretions of professional athletes and entertainers, and they often omit information that is truly important. In addition, the ‘news’ sometimes contains ‘spin’ that is hard to detect.”

“Okay, so what’s wrong with spin in the news?”

“If you see the ‘spun’ information again and again, you might eventually believe it. Ultimately, it may become an urban legend (the Brits call it an urban myth) in which you acquire unquestioning faith.”

“That doesn’t sound good, Curmudge, especially if the info is wrong or at least uncertain. So why should this subject be of interest to people working in health care?”

“Virtually no one that I know in health care has time to read the news critically. Perhaps we can provide some guidance to help them avoid getting hoodwinked by what they read. We’ll also give a refresher on the ethics of ‘speaking with data.’ "

“How can we do that, Old Guy?”

“In our next few conversations we’ll suggest some cautionary signals that will alert the reader to possible spin. Things like confusion over cause-and-effect and the possible impact of vested interest in reported information. We’ll also mention some less familiar, but in-the-news, topics like mathematical models and peer-reviewed research publications. One story will be an allegory, and another will be a play starring you as a tired-out Italian nurse, Spossate Infermiera.”

“Wow! I can hardly wait. But I’ll bet there are some people out there who are so set in their beliefs that they will consider your ideas to be just the ranting of an old man.”

“That’s okay, Julie. My age is my license to rant.”

“I presume that every one of our conversations will have a lesson. Can we add a short lesson to end your tirade for today?”

“Sure, Jaded Julie. Here it is: When a writer quotes a politician who is talking about science, put on your skeptic’s hat.”

Kaizen Curmudgeon

Link to posting from blog archives: Jaded Julie Learns about “Gemba”  6/19/07

A Look Ahead on Kaizen Curmudgeon

A Look Ahead on Kaizen Curmudgeon

“Hey, Curmudge, you seem to have become rather critical of conventional wisdom lately.”

“That’s for sure, Julie.  If it becomes fallacious dogma, like the LNT hypothesis applied to low-level radiation, I’m unforgiving.  However I’m eager to study unresolved topics like anthropogenic (man-made) global warming that have become dogma only to some people.”

“A curmudgeon with an open mind?  How unusual!  I guess that explains why our next few discussions will be on global warming.  I hope that your old, leaky brain recalls that we talked about that subject rather indirectly back in January and February of 2010.”

“I do, Julie.  That was in our personal blog, Curmudgeon‘s Wastebasket, in which we posted controversial items not allowed by our corporate sponsor.  Let’s reprint some of these old Wastebasket postings in our current blog to remind our readers about the hot topics in global warming back in 2009-2010.  Here are the rather subtle lessons that we attempted to teach: (a) watch for ‘spin’ in the news, (b) cause and effect confused the locals, but not Galileo, (c) mathematical models and vested interests, (d) peer-reviewed publications (alluding to “climategate”), (e) wizardry, climate prognostication, and draconian solutions.”

“Then what next, Old Guy?”

“I’ve spent the past couple of weeks bringing myself up to date on climate issues.  Most of the literature is still highly polarized.  What I was seeking was an article that was comprehensive, unbiased, and current.  And I found one.  Here’s the link.  It was written by a Norwegian, Emil A. Røyrvik of SINTEF Technology and Society.  Because the paper is 82 pages long, I suggest that you start reading it ASAP.”

“Thanks a lot, Curmudge.  And I was hoping for a summer vacation.  So are we going to base our postings on that article alone?”

“Not quite, Julie.  We’ll try to give an overview of what is being said today on both sides of the debate.  Nevertheless, concerned readers will need to do some studying on their own.  Remember that a blog is too short to really teach a subject.  We can only tell a reader where to find information so he can teach himself.”

“Tell me, Curmudge, do you really think that we can discuss a controversial topic without favoring one side or the other?”

“Not since our blog became independent.  If I had to be totally unbiased, I could no longer be a curmudgeon; and we’d have to change our names to Snow White and Grumpy.” 

   

Kaizen Curmudgeon

Link to posting from blog archives: Curmudgeon and Jaded Julie Talk about Names, 5/23/07